Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Con Art - Solution

This is the solution to the question I posed in this post, so if you haven't read it you can safely skip this one too.

Hussein got it pretty much right on in the comments.

What the company could have done is the following.
Identify 32000 recepients, that's a very easy feat and most mailing lists for sale contain way more than that.
First week, divide them in halves. Send to half of them (16000) saying that X stock will go up, and the other half saying that X stock is going down.
Wait for 1 week, see the results. You must have sent the correct prediction to 8000 people, no matter how the stock actually did. Identify those 16000, divide them in halves, repeat the exact same process saying to half of them that the stock is going up and to the other half that it's going down.

At the end of 6 weeks you would've sent 6 correct prediction in a row to 500 people. Collect your money and profit :)
This con game is illegal when/if played on purpose. Do not attempt :)

No comments: